Wanquan Business Garden, the whole floor for sale, 2200 level, 24 million, office renovation, contact Mr. Gu ...

 Wanquan Business Garden, the whole floor for sale, 2200 level, 24 million, office renovation, contact Mr. Gu,
one can discuss the end of the article
Price Change Introduction: For a variety of voices talking about house prices , mostly filled with non-rational factors, or one-sided emphasis on the impact of a factor, or ulterior motives. This paper will affect the price of many real aspects of the trend described by the analysis to draw firm conclusions. < ;> The following eight factors were analyzed from the following
First, demographic factors <> Second, the deposit factor <> Third, the purchasing power of the factors <> Fourth, political factors <> V, hot money factor <> VI, the land factor <> seven, the role of the law of value <> eight, the confidence factor
<> First, demographic factors (the Doctrine of house need someone to carry, and if the population living below the house can provide the number of unused real estate will be formed; if the use value of the house can not be exercised, its true value will tend to zero. any reasonable person not to buy things of no value, in this case the price of the house of course, speak of, and return to its original appearance. <> departments have been in accordance with the maximum degree of the calculated: the peak of China's population up to 1.4 billion by 2020, then gradually speed up the large number of population decline, the net annual population reduction of more than ten million! This is equivalent to an annual reduction of a city like Beijing or Shanghai's population (the current 1.2-objective survey The fertility rate of 1.3 terms). For decades, China will only hundreds of millions of people! In fact, this is only a static calculation in accordance with the figures obtained, taking into account the dynamic factors (such as the large and medium urban youth in general marriage After the extension, single, prices, amazing childcare costs, the severe employment situation, the intense social competition, and weak social security, to the reality of men and women and set up round after round of threshold, not to mention the second child, and even able to afford marriage knot, affordable housing have been a big problem. <> The current policy has resulted in the case of fertility will be: children will inherit an average of more than 2 sets of real estate, but also in the very near future. more worthless the total population in 15 years (including the floating population) will stabilize at around 1,600 million; another statistic, said: Beijing currently has registered 550 million units of housing (that was not nearly 20% of the total amount of house property), completed in Beijing in recent years and sales of residential annual average of 1500 million square meters, and this building would also like to get long; in accordance with the construction of such a speed, a few years, Beijing will be a large surplus of housing. Yanjiao, such as Hebei Zhuozhou neighboring region also joined the competition for the housing market in Beijing, only a Yanjiao called people! million square meters of which more than other stocks in the surrounding area abound. population no longer growing, but housing is a significant increase in the sustained, what prices will trend, I believe you can judge yourself, right? <> the above situation can also be proved by an angle from the following: <> The Ministry of Education statistics on the number of students. We know that the Chinese primary school enrollment rate is relatively high, generally above 98%. <>, a news report reported: the Ministry of Education announced the people, less than the 381.04 million the previous year. the number of primary schools over three years ago to reduce the more than 90,000 of the. <> The above is the news about the case of three-year period, we checked the past decade , a decrease of 22,700; enrollment 2524.66 million, a decrease of 7.15 million people. reduction of 17,200; enrollment 2462.04 million, a decrease of 62.62 million people. . Admission 2201.38 million, a decrease of 260.66 million people. people, a decrease of 171.85 million people. a decrease of 83.06 million people. reduce the 2.26 million people. , an increase of 8.59 million people, Total Primary 425,800, a decrease of 31,100; enrollment 1829.39 million, a decrease of 123.41 million people. Primary 394,200, a decrease of 31,700; enrollment 1747.01 million, a decrease of 82.38 million people. From the above data shows that primary school enrollment declined year by year over the past decade, since the primary school enrollment rate has not significantly reduced, it can be inferred that reduce the number of primary school enrollment in 2004, which means 1998 or the number of births in 1997 than reduction of the previous year; reduce the number of primary school enrollment in 2003, which means 1997 or 1996, the number of births decreased over the previous year, and so on. <> In general, the decline in the number of rural primary school enrollment is understandable because, as the development of urbanization, more and more farmers in the town married, their children may attend school in the city. But it is alarming that the number of primary school students are also many cities down! For example, in In 2005, pupils in the scale of Beijing, only about 75% in 2000. In recent years, Beijing has continued to merge schools. a serious surplus of primary school teachers. <> over the past decade, not only primary school enrollment declined year by year, and various statistical data show that total fertility rate of population decline year after year. For example, 1% in 1995, National Bureau of Statistics census shows the total fertility rate is only 1.46; the 1997 National sample survey of population and reproductive health is 1.35.
population Aging <> in Beijing, household population natural growth rate of 5 consecutive years of zero, this is the aging of the increasingly serious situation occurred. This Note: Beijing's population die each year than births, because Every year, tens of thousands of foreign students to settle down in Beijing and other new talents. and the new majority is not settled among the elderly. aging means: the number of people at some time will suddenly dropped, rapid population reduced. take a look around your life, is not widely available, and the proportion of very elderly people? interested can access the article on aging look to see how this will impact our country (since the founding of China's population had peak times). solely on the impact on the property from the point of view, enthusiasm for the elderly on the property inferior to other groups, passed away, leaving large empty house prices will cause dilution.
Floating Population <> Some people say that the floating population is very important to buy real estate force, the word was in the past yes, but to say that the future is still so biased. floating population can be divided into two main categories, are migrant workers, one is a certain knowledge and skills. We all know that workers in large cities is unlikely to buy a house, and now out in rural areas where people can basically come out, stay in the rural areas where basically belong to the less and less. In recent years, occurred all over the small towns, rather than flock to cities. <> The other has some knowledge and skills (young people as the main body), they will most likely become the main force of population growth in cities, but its size can not compared with a previous history. high above the house, itself is an obstacle impeding the flow of talent, which greatly improved the survival of stay in the big cities the cost and the threshold. Now more and more young people squeamish, . <> So, for the first-line cities, the population, insufficient number of long-term support for the continued development of a large number of real estate growth, house prices turned down in the short term necessity.
Second, the deposit factor (split If in accordance with the price of 1.2 yuan / square meter per year will consume completed 1,800 billion residential; if the country's real estate conservatively calculated by the equivalent of 32 Beijing, the annual new residential deposits will consume 57,600 residents billion, the figure, not 3 years, the National People's savings deposits will be nothing left! This is clearly not going to happen, because people have to remain part of the money for education, health care, pension and other large unexpected expenses and consumption. In addition, the diversion of the stock market has a large deposit hot. Even if all the people with mortgage loans to buy a house, even if the average annual per capita income increased 10%, even if house prices will not rise, the Chinese people of this overdraft in the large number of people purchasing power. Now ordinary people are only looked up at lofty prices, it is so far away, have not got a hand to pick; as Ren said, build a house for the rich. price of 13,754 yuan. If the purchase of 80 square meters of a house at this price to calculate the housing price is 110 million. the use of a bank mortgage loan to buy a house (loan Bacheng, 20 equal installments of principal and interest), according to the current loan interest rates , compared with 22 million down payment, repayment of 6644 yuan per month. If by 2008 will be implementation of the new loan rate, the monthly repayment of about 7,000 yuan. Clearly, the ordinary people even if the patchwork of hand in the down payment, still unable to pay monthly bank repayments. ordinary people since not, then the higher income (wealthy, upstart, biggest names, celebrities, entrepreneurs and other very small proportion of the community is temporarily dollars) do? in Beijing with a monthly income of 10,000 element can be regarded as well-paid wage earners, even if the income is so, even if not up in the current house prices have been the case, usually at least 5 years to prepare enough for the down payment, but we take into account also for the last month every month will become nearly penniless, and even become a real other ordinary people wait? accounted for the vast majority of social subjects have been not afford housing, the price has reached or exceeded the purchasing power of the mass limit, the so-called circumstances, even if there is more price earnings ratio. the so-called price earnings ratio is defined as housing prices and urban residents in the ratio of household income. in accordance with international management, the relatively prevailing view that the price earnings ratio of between 3 --- 6 times reasonable interval, such as the factors to consider housing loans, housing consumption accounts for the proportion of income should be below 30%. But, according to the survey, most of the country's price earnings ratio of first-tier cities in excess of 10. <> I know a Year value of billions of dollars of private owners, want to buy a set in Beijing, about 150 square meters of occupied property, but after seen a number of properties for sale in the face of high property prices have balked. business owner is still the case, more Moreover, ordinary income it! <> even come up with many years of poor parents who accumulated pension money to pay the down payment for the children, but the next question is: the children's income is also difficult to maintain for months, fathers were also loss of the material basis of enjoying their later years. stimulating important driving force for social and economic development - consumption, will become weak and fatigue, and long-term fatigue, because house prices have the potential power of this kind of power and emptied. Rates are serious to advance the purchasing power of people's future means that the housing market will face a long-term weakness. able to afford housing, and basically bought a house, and those who can not afford housing, according to the current price trend is still can not afford, unless the house began to cut prices; now buy a house, real estate accounted for the main body, rather than for self-occupied person. <> extremely high prices, bought a house for young people to carry heavy, not consumption, not quit, not business, not even a divorce ... ... all the young people into the house, a house for young people to put aside the personality, young golden period in their life had to work hard for the house Since then, no ideals, no longer have a future; house might go achievements of the elite and the genius, thus to ordinary and mediocre. <> prices are too high for the real needs of people living in the house, is a very real pain, the house is a tragic denial of their lives. Faced with this life was kidnapped, people will eventually return to reason, to stop thinking seriously.
Fourth, political factors
I believe, the author can think of is that our leaders can think of. housing issue has been raised to look at the political level, because it concerns the livelihood of people across the country related to social stability, the country's sustainable development. <> countries want the healthy development of real estate, I was so understood: in the housing issue, the countries do not want to price fluctuations in a short time, because it would be China's financial and economic impact of causing great and destruction, countries hope to house a smooth return to a reasonable level. countries in recent years the introduction of the previous regulation are relatively moderate, but does not mean that the government can tolerate the crazy house prices continue to go on. In fact, the Government has in hand is not without suppressing prices trump card, you can use many means, such as ordering developers to take land from 3 years from the date of completion and acceptance must be developed, or an unconditional end to recover the land undeveloped and heavier penalties (one for this one, if the Government's implementation in place, set down the prices!); levy property tax; cancel sale system; increase the proportion of mortgage interest rates and down payment loans; will include the issue of assessing local housing an important indicator of government officials, the implementation of number one responsibility; to strengthen the relevant government oversight and audit functions, and so on. <> Our financial system is still relatively weak, the state does not want to see the collapse of real estate and financial collapse, so by regulation to achieve a ideal. But the greedy developers and some local governments and relevant central government departments, regardless of the care and thought is, let the country become more complex and difficult to control. <> real estate industry plays a social role , is to gather the wealth of the middle class a few industries and a few hands, and increased wealth disparity, which is a very terrible thing! and thus to the central government has caused tremendous pressure to force the Government to gradually increase the strength of real estate regulation. <> a million new homes every turn, a new building to eliminate 100 million middle class families. the city's business elite dream of all walks of life have been spent in the house on the development of the industries lack of stamina, science and technology can not be the primary productive forces, science and technology behind a long time in the international arena will be beaten, no end of trouble, the government also had to adjust. <> must have positive righting a wrong, face the situation the seriousness of the central place is likely to take more stringent policies and instruments; This will allow developers to come early winter. <> Local Government in the whole chain of real estate development, as various types of taxes (including land) accounted for a large proportion of housing can be said to reduce the price on the local government has not a small as space. <> With the new phase in place of local government officials, local governments in the implementation of central policies efforts will be enhanced, the effect of regulation will become increasingly obvious. particularly in the current inflation situation is more serious cases, house prices continue upward and will certainly be severely suppressed. <> We believe that our party and Government represents the overwhelming majority of the people's fundamental interests, the state will introduce effective measures to safeguard its people. <> affordable housing has also been important parts of the government as the goal, ; Beijing will build 30 million square meters during the security room and limited to two rooms, which will in large part the impact of the current A prominent Beijing house prices. <> has been implemented a decade of prudent monetary policy ; mission accomplished 'strong''into''tight''send a strong policy signal. resulting from tight monetary policy, pointed out that next year will further the role of monetary policy in the important role of macro-control, strict control of monetary and credit aggregates and tempo. excess liquidity and price increases will be inhibited, prices will not be immune.
five hot money factor Since the people in the hands of the deposits
limited purchasing power of the weak, why the housing market has seen strong sales in recent years it? <> First, we see a substantial rise in real estate prices are mostly concentrated in big cities, it is because the cities more focused on quality resources. In the past, people are more willing to look into opportunities for large and medium cities, and the influx of population has enlarged the market, real estate speculators have created a hotbed of speculation. and small city and county where housing prices does not appear in the sharp rise in recent years, has long been up and down basically in the 2,000, mainly local people's purchasing power is limited, no one pushed up disk access, the housing market does not have the basis of fry, so the issue price in the medium and small cities and the county seat is not prominent. housing problem is that housing prices in cities problems. <> cities in the rich more, but if you only referred to above total deposits do rely on to fry the property market, then the property would not have been so crazy; as the stock market, as soaring property prices have a huge amount of money is needed to promote the. Well, so much did the money come from? <> Answer: In addition to the savings deposits of residents, there are hot money. <> first explain what is hot money: Money) funds. It is most characteristic of short-term, arbitrage and speculation. it relied, the late 90s of last century the international Southeast Asian country's financial system. <> When will the hot money flows into China? <> general international hot money flows to the two heat sources: <> 1. short-term interest rates are in the high band, or still higher < > 2. a short period of exchange rate ready to go, about the appreciation of <> as long as China to comply with these two elements, on the stream of hot money inflows. <> generally developing countries, the economy is taking off, the national income is growth, rising stock market pending, as long as compared with other countries to meet these elements, can attract hot money came in all directions. <> can be hot money have the least loyalty to speak of, they will stay until their own relative to his country: < ;> 1. short-term interest rates already retreated down <> 2. a short period of exchange rate pending Zoubian <> hot money will flow again. <> so-called hot money outflow, that is, the sale of domestic currency denominated assets, such as foreign ownership of stocks, bonds, speculative land, a large number of sold, and replaced with his country's currency, the Qingchao export. <> more than one into one, if time is short and the traffic flow, will cause domestic bond market housing City, burst from the first down! <> the case of China in recent years is in line with the conditions of international hot money inflows, reports that each year through underground banks, foreign trade and Camouflage, foreign investment and other means of hot money into China hundreds of billions of dollars! coupled with some unscrupulous officials of gray income, profit-driven private hot money involved, a few wealthy rigid demand and speculative needs, developers Terrestrial cover plate will be China's rapid push to the peak prices. Now, to buy Housing has become the rich of the game, so the high prices to speculation in the speculation to go between them. <>, but the nature of hot money, its short-term, and the appreciation of the RMB will not go infinite, once profitable or bearish expectations, hot money will flee quickly to the outside through various channels, China's large-scale collapse of the housing market will be followed there. At present, the hot money in China have been lucrative ShangXi room, in a down market before selling the property to avoid the risk that house prices will cause a chain avalanche.
six, land factors (the Doctrine of China's housing prices can not crash. developers do not say one billion square meters of land hoarding in the hands of developers, enough to supply the national market volume of 5 years of development. to Beijing, for example, in July of this year, the bureau released the data, from January 2004 to June of this year, Beijing residential projects supply area of 5,775 hectares of land, construction land area of 4206 hectares, planned construction area of 78,660,000 square meters. but 2 and a half years since the Beijing residential land supply of 712, has completed an area of 669 hectares of land, only 12% of the total The remaining majority of projects under construction or not yet started land. which has not yet started construction of 2,947 hectares of land, and in all places in the 712, has completed the development of only 74. If the land under construction and not built to common volume rate of 2 to form the case of residential, you can provide more than 115 million square meters of the house, not even counting the additional land supply each year. If the average by 80 sq m per suite, the existing idle Beijing 1.44 million of land to form residential units (do not forget this is only 3 years time, based on the supply of land). Recently, Beijing has also published the By 2010, Beijing's new total will reach 24,200 hectares of land supply. So, even if one half of the land into residential, will be another form of the house more than 240 million square meters, which means that after a few years and 300 million homes One can hope. the sum of the two, the house 10 years can form as many as 444 million! so many new houses that can accommodate tens of millions of people. In the Government actions are to follow each other. So, people want to buy a house need not rush, we can safely wait to see house prices falling day by day. <> What really is the unbreakable? population will be significantly reduced in the future to insist it still make sense? I prefer to believe that this is a short-term policy, it left the future of our great imagination. < > look at the history of residential development in developed countries, housing and living is an inevitable trend of suburbanization, people no longer crowded in the bustling city center, to the more low-density, more affordable, more comfortable, more fresh and healthy living environment to work and life, the city is no longer sought after huge house, house prices inevitably fall.
seven, the role of the law of value is always the law of value
work, and no market can only rise and not fall, implement in real estate is no exception.
look at the rental than <> so-called ratio. internationally to measure the running of a regional real estate for sale in good condition than the average rent is defined as 1:200 to 1:300. If the rental ratio is lower than 1:300, which means a relatively smaller value of real estate investment, real estate bubble has emerged; if higher than 1:200, indicating that this region is relatively large real estate investment potential, market outlook is good. rental higher than in either 1:200 or less than 1:300, are the real reason that real estate prices deviate from the real estate value. <> Now, Guangzhou, Shenzhen area rental 1:800 or even higher than has been achieved. For example, a 100 square meters of houses, purchase of capital investment to more than 2.4 million yuan, and the monthly rent was only 8000 to 10,000 yuan, which means at least 240-250 years to recover the cost to buy a house. in accordance with the ratio of 1:200 to 1:300 is expected rental, discounted annual rate of return of investment growth stage, approximately 4% to 6%. now up to 1:800 or even higher than rental, means that yield less than 4%, only 1% or 0.5%, the real estate as a long-term investment want to, that is, to the sights real estate funds into long-term gains, and this shows the yield of the property market has been very great risk. <> Beijing's situation? According to the latest data show that Beijing's housing prices and rents rapidly rising trend than the average sale rent ratio has reached 350 to 1, exceeding the internationally accepted warning line of 300 to 1. <> Market analysts believe that the price of rent is subject to a greater extent than the level of appreciation of the regional real estate force in itself, and prices The rise and their prices rise in the great asymmetry between the status quo, further raised the price of the rent ratio. If you do not consider the rapid growth of the housing market driven real estate appreciation, the present real estate has been in most of the region value deviation state. Everyone knows that there is a bubble, and are worried about missing the opportunity to earn high profits. It was like drumming mass flowers, flower afraid to take receipt of the final bar. drum pass to spend the game once stopped, then set will be worth the candle, or even loss heavy.
look at the vacancy rate of <> in accordance with international practice, the vacancy rate between 5% and 10% as a reasonable area in between 10% and 20% of the danger zone for the vacancy in more than 20% serious backlog of housing areas. According to statistics, second quarter of 2007, Beijing in the luxury residential market, the overall vacancy rate has reached 24.42%. <>, a real estate agent anonymity, the staff in the Sankei Shimbun Bridge, a nearby district, the house sold out long ago, but the evening was dark, not a few people live. the situation in Beijing is very common in many quarters. <> look at the house construction cost < > a senior construction project cost estimates have been divisions: Excluding the cost of land, the common cost per square meter of residential buildings not exceeding 1,000 yuan, even the sharp rise in prices of various raw materials, but because of its share price It is the proportion of low, very limited impact on housing prices; so raw material prices is not an important reason for soaring prices. Some research later said that, if with the international standards, cf Paris, Beijing and reasonable price is 2134 yuan, which Although a little laugh, but at least the price that we indeed have been profits can be used to rent, but also can increase their value. <> In the short term, people do buy a house a few years ago basically to achieve this purpose, but the long term, based on the above article a number of factors, real estate value and the rent must fall along the trend of relative decline, the market will be very optimistic about the future. In Beijing, 100 square meters of the house price can be is 160 million, but the rents are only up to 3600 yuan / month, that is, the rent is far far not worth the bank deposit interest, not to mention loans for the month. In the context of banks to raise interest rates, people can directly feel the price to buy a house. <> so the house can withstand is maintained inflation? prices into the downstream channel is about, even in the context of inflation, some of its surface to improve general merchandise rose, but not worth the rate, relatively speaking, or fall. That is, the house will become worthless, investment real estate has lost its significance as a hedge investment. <> for each medium-sized cities have a lot of people hold multiple sets of real estate, in order to ensure that the hands of the to cash, which will form a wave created in the near future a large number of housing supply, promoting housing ...